Tesla model 3 backlog




Tesla model 3 backlog

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  • Tesla Motors revealed that the company still has a backlog of about Model 3 reservations. This means that, at the current production.

    Tesla is now taking open orders in North America. We estimate a conversion ratio of 30% between backlog reservations and orders. At that.

    Find answers to frequently asked questions on ordering a Model 3, including information on reservations, delivery timing, tax incentives and home charging.

    Tesla model 3 backlog

    Tesla model 3 backlog

    That is such a simplistic analysis it's comical. You must log in or sign up to post here. The line will be for it then. Vote Up 11 0 Vote Down Reply. Close, it is because of lack of parts.

    Tesla model 3 backlog

    Tesla model 3 backlog

    Tesla model 3 backlog

    Tesla model 3 backlog

    Tesla model 3 backlog

    Tesla Model 3 Backlog Still Close To 2 Years

    We expected about , of annual demand for Model 3 priced at USD40, and above. We then translated that for Tesla, which was then only active in the higher segments with the Model S and Model X. The numbers are in Table 1 below; we see a demand of up to , for that you would need to sell cars in the USD20, area and , at USD40, and above.

    We note the high price elasticity: This is similar to the 2. If we assume that the distribution of the demand in the backlog is similar, then we can split the backlog into the same price buckets. The numbers are in Table 2 below. As orders are now open in North America, it suggests that the backlog has been exhausted in this price range.

    Tesla model 3 backlog

    As such, our estimated , backlogs in this price range for North America has been converted into 36, sales 28, deliveries, to which we add some cars in transit and an allocation for demand in the coming weeks.

    However, we cannot use this conversion ratio on the current backlog of ,, particularly as many customers no longer need to make reservations to place an order. We also need to take into account reservations and cancellations.

    Tesla model 3 backlog

    The backlog number of , dates from a year ago, and during that period new reservations and cancellations have come in. We need to account for these cancellations in the conversion ratio. I make the following simple adjustment. As we forecast a maximum , of potential demand for Model 3, I think , of new reservations added in the last year is a conservative estimate Second Measure has published a more detailed analysis on this.

    While it sounds nice, it is not. We make many assumptions in this analysis. Secondly, there might be material differences in the conversion rate between geography: Europeans may have a higher or lower conversion rate, for example.

    Finally, as the backlog ages, the conversion ratio may trend lower. A variety of reasons could explain this: However, it is a fantastic feat to get so many deposits converted into orders. I think this continues to demonstrate the appeal of the product and the Tesla brand. Based on our study, and even taking into account its limits, the existing backlog does not provide a large pool of orders for the Model 3.

    Tesla model 3 backlog

    To be clear, this is not my view on the total demand for the Model 3: As per our demand analysis, we expect to see ongoing demand from North American customers in this price range who have not placed a reservation.

    We see this ongoing demand being capped at , per annum see table 2. On the current ASP, adding the international backlog 36, and North America ongoing demand 51, for two quarters points to 87, of demand for Q3 and Q4.

    AWD Model 3 is Here!



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